| | ESPN Poker Bad Beat Story: read here for one of
the single greatest poker stories i've ever heard. don't worry, no
substantial poker knowledge needed. the lesson? do not EVER argue with
an old lady at the poker table. she will be spiteful and she will make
you pay. young men especially. if she sucks out on you with a
one-outter, shut your mouth.
heading up to tahoe tonight for a one-day stint at kirkwood. i picked up a
nice new set of jacket and pants for my snow gear, so i should be warm
this time. the snow should also be nice due to the recent rain. nice.
is it strange to be insanely excited about better traffic? ever since i
moved down to mountain view, my commute has been pretty horrible due to
the 101-85 interchange. apparently there are a few big companies at
shoreline (read: microsoft, google) and all those employees clog the
shit out of my path from 85-101. anyhow, the horrific construction has
been finished, leading to felix sending me this exciting
news story. now maybe i won't be so grumpy when i get to work.
super bowl prediction: i've been picking against the steelers for the
entire playoffs, so i'm gonna go the other direction now. i still
believe that if carson palmer doesn't get hurt the steelers get
trounced in their game, but i've gotta pick the steelers this time.
now, for those of you actually interested in hearing about poker, an
interesting hand story from the other night at garden city. stop
reading if you're not interested.
** From my point of view **
8-16 game. i'm on the big blind. everyone folds to the cut-off, who
raises it. now the guy sorta has it out for me after i crushed him on
an enormous pot earlier (2c3c on the button. he flops a set of fives. i
turn the wheel.). he's a pretty tricky player and very aggressive, so i
think he's probably stealing. button and small blind fold. i look down
at Ah6c. i think about re-raising here to take the lead, but i decide
to smooth-call (i personally think either play is fine against this
type of player). $36 in the pot.
flop comes Jc6d2s. i check. he bets. i raise. he thinks and calls. now
here i'm thinking that he doesn't have much. he's aggressive enough
that if he has a J or an overpair he's going to re-raise. he's probably
putting me on a J. i do think i have the best hand. i imagine i'm
looking at overcards or maybe an Ax hand. $68 in the pot.
turn comes Js. that's actually a pretty good card for me i think, since
i feel like i could rule out a J in his hand. i bet. he raises. now i'm
thinking he could possibly have the J. but it's either that or a flush
draw. i'm thinking it's hte flush draw with overcards. now here's where
i make a mistake in retrospect. if i re-raise, he has to give me credit
for a J. it's hard to imagine that he thinks that i think that he's
semi-bluffing. instead, i just smooth-call, which was a bad idea. $132
in the pot.
river comes 9c. i check to the raiser. he bets. i think hard for a
while. if he had a flush draw i feel he didn't hit. he has to be
betting a complete bluff here trying to steal it. has to. i call. $164
in the pot.
he flips over As9s. mmph.
i've been thinking this hand over a lot. i do sort of feel like it was
my only bad play from the night. if i had re-raised on the turn and bet
on the river, he has to lay it down, doesn't he? i think it's 25-75
whether he lays it down. now reversing it, let's think about what i
would have done if i had been playing against myself both ways there:
** From his point of view **
As9s on the cut-off, folded to me. i would certainly raise with that
hand in an un-entered pot from that late position. the big blind, a
pretty solid aggressive player smooth calls.
flop comes Jc6d2s. he checks. i would certainly bet my A-high here. i
took the betting lead before the flop and he's on the big blind. i'm
probably still good. he check-raises me. the range of hands i put him
on here would actually pretty enormous. an overpair slow-playing
pre-flop heads up. a middle pair. a 6 with a good kicker. a J. i think
in most cases here i actually fold. getting check-raised on a flop like
that, potentially with only 3 Ace outs. i guess it's debatable, but i
think i fold. anyhow, he calls so let's pretend i call.
turn comes Js. he bets again. that's actually a pretty good card for
me. if he has a J then it's bad, but i've now got nine outs. if he
doesn't have a J then i can semi-bluff here. i would raise as he did.
now here's the interesting question. let's now say my opponent
re-raised. i would have to give him credit for a J or an overpair. i
would have pot odds to call anyway. if he smooth-calls here i can
probably rule out a J or overpair, based on his table image. i'm
probably staring at a middle pair of 6 with a good kicker. (thinking
about this in retrospect, i should have re-raised in real life).
river comes 9c. now looking at it, if he re-raised on the turn, i would
have to think long and hard about folding even as i paired my 9. i'm
probably beat. really the only hands i could beat are 7's, 8's, 6's, or
a bluff. he's shown a lot of strength. now that's not saying THIS guy
would've folded, but he would've had to think about it.
as it actually went down, i would certainly have bet out if i were him. nothing wrong there on the end.
this is the kind of post-hand analysis that makes me sick; in
retrospect it's so clear. would he have folded? i actually doubt it.
the guy was sort of out to get me. but it would've made for a tough
decision by him and i would've only invested $16 more dollars to have
(maybe) a 30% shot at winning. next time, i guess...
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| | Posted 2/3/2006 11:35 AM - 2 Views - 2 eProps - 2 comments
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